Swiss Peace: Nepal: Semi-Annual Risk Assessment May - Nov 2006 December 2006

FAST Update Nepal: Semi-Annual Risk Assessment May - Nov 2006

Risk Assessment:

The successful peoples' movement demonstrations of April 2006 resulted in the graph lines crossing as Country Stability rose and Confrontational Events declined. Though the Confrontational Events curve shows some instability thereafter, the basic underlying improvement is maintained and this is reflected in the continued strong optimistic Country Stability index. The optimistic graph lines are even stronger towards October and further enhanced by the signing of the peace agreements between the Government of Nepal and the Communist Party of Nepal ? Maoist (CPN-M, or Maoists) during November.

The road to the November agreements was shaky. The euphoria at the end of April gave way to a more realistic appreciation of the difficulties of the task ahead and there were times when confidence ebbed. Worries that the government might not deliver on agreements made with the Maoists in order to progress the peace process rose during May. There were also fears, which have not been totally allayed, that the monarchy and or the army may reassert itself.

During May, the House of Representatives stripped the King of many of his powers and asserted Parliamentary control over the army

On June 2 the Maoists held a huge mass meeting in Kathmandu which 200,000 people were reported to have attended. This display of support stunned many observers

During the April to November period, many Nepalis were apprehensive that international intervention, particularly from India or the US, was going to undermine the talks and plunge the country back to war. The Indian agreement to UN management of weapons, announced on June 9 gave some reassurance. Nevertheless, strong anti-Maoist statements by the US ambassador continued to cause concern.

The historic agreements reached between the government of Nepal and CPN-M should bolster Country Stability and end the risk of armed confrontation between these conflict parties.

More informtation

Nepal SPA Government - CPN (M) Peace Accord and Monitoring Agreements November 2006 Peace Process